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From | Jung-eun Lee <tinymoon@yahoo.com> |
To | statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu |
Subject | Re: st: Dealing with an unusual peak in time-series data |
Date | Mon, 7 Feb 2011 16:40:06 -0800 (PST) |
Thanks, professor. This data is on protest events, so unusual peaks are sometimes expected (like what's happening in Egypt now). I wonder what might be the most effective way to deal with this type of data. Should I model this data with and without the peaks then, as you suggested? Which one should I report when I write a paper for a journal? Of course there will be some inconsistencies between two sets of results. I am wondering what the comparison would mean substantively. --- On Thu, 2/3/11, Ronan Conroy <rconroy@rcsi.ie> wrote: > From: Ronan Conroy <rconroy@rcsi.ie> > Subject: Re: st: Dealing with an unusual peak in time-series data > To: "statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu" <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu> > Date: Thursday, February 3, 2011, 9:49 AM > On 3 Feb 2011, at 17:41, Jung-eun Lee > wrote: > > > Hi all, > > I have data on monthly counts of certain events for > about 20-year period. > > I looked at the temporal pattern of the monthly > counts, and I found a HUGE peak in the middle of the data > (for 2-3 months). > > I wonder whether or not it is ok to estimate a > time-series model like negative binomial regression (this > data has lots of zeros) when the data looks like this. Any > other model suggestion? > > This suggests that a process was at work for this time > period which did not apply to the rest of the series. You > are better off trying to identify what this was (human > error?) and deal with it as a separate issue. It may not be > appropriate to model this period with the remainder of the > data. > > Ronán Conroy > rconroy@rcsi.ie > Associate Professor > Division of Population Health Sciences > Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland > Beaux Lane House > Dublin 2 > > > * > * For searches and help try: > * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search > * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq > * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ > * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/