What are the scores for the complements of Events 1, 2, 3?
Nick
[email protected]
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Wally Knox
Sent: 11 January 2009 18:35
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: st: RE: Calculating binomial probability distribution of
cumulative outcomes of independent events with differing values and
probabilites
Hi Nick etc.
The events are independent so their individual probabilities don't
total 1.0.
I am told that to obtain the likely outcome of the events to multiply
their individual probabilities by their individual values and sum the
results.
So,
Event Prob Value Prob*Value
1 .9 12 1.08
2 .5 2 1.0
3 .2 6 1.2
I am told that the most likely outcome of all three events will be
1.08 + 1.0 + 1.2 = 3.28. But I would like to see the full
distribution of outcomes by their cumulative probabilities. Can I use
a monte carlo simulation setting different probabilities and values
for each event?
Wally
On Jan 11, 2009, at 8:51 AM, Nick Cox wrote:
> I don't get this. Probabilities of .9, .5, .2 don't add to 1.
> Nor does this look like a binomial calculation to me. Nor do obvious
> need Stata for problems like this, which have an analytic solution.
>
> Your problem may be related to that solved below
>
> . set random 1952
> . gen noise = runiform()
> . gen score = cond(noise < .2, 12, cond(noise < .6, 2, 6))
>
> Nick
> [email protected]
>
> Wally Knox
>
> I would like to calculate the probability distribution of the
> cumulative outcomes of independent events each of which has
> a different value and a different probability. For instance, take
> three events. Event One has a probability of .9 and would contribute
> 12 to the overall outcome. Event Two has a probability of .5 and
> would contribute 2 to the overall outcome. Event Three has a
> probability of .2 and would contribute 6 to the overall outcome. What
> is a simple way in Stata to perform the calculation of the
> distribution of the overall outcome values?
>
*
* For searches and help try:
* http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search
* http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq
* http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/
