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re: st: Predicted probabilities


From   Claude Francoeur <[email protected]>
To   [email protected]
Subject   re: st: Predicted probabilities
Date   Sun, 10 Dec 2006 16:30:06 -0500

Hello Richard,

I am trying to generate a prediction-classification table.  It shows how the 
model predicts the binary dependent correctly. The cut-off value is usually 
50%. For example, EViews produces the following table :

      Dependent Variable: PW





      Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing)


      Date: 11/22/06 Time: 14:32




      Sample (adjusted): 1 266




      Included observations: 266 after adjustments



      Prediction Evaluation (success cutoff C = 0.5)



















                Estimated Equation
                Constant Probability


     Dep=0
     Dep=1
     Total
     Dep=0
     Dep=1
     Total

















      P(Dep=1)<=C
     230
     27
     257
     235
     31
     266

      P(Dep=1)>C
     5
     4
     9
     0
     0
     0

      Total
     235
     31
     266
     235
     31
     266

      Correct
     230
     4
     234
     235
     0
     235

      % Correct
     97.87
     12.90
     87.97
     100.00
     0.00
     88.35

      % Incorrect
     2.13
     87.10
     12.03
     0.00
     100.00
     11.65

      Total Gain*
     -2.13
     12.90
     -0.38




      Percent Gain**
     NA
     12.90
     -3.23





















                Estimated Equation
                Constant Probability


     Dep=0
     Dep=1
     Total
     Dep=0
     Dep=1
     Total

















      E(# of Dep=0)
     212.59
     22.71
     235.31
     207.61
     27.39
     235.00

      E(# of Dep=1)
     22.41
     8.29
     30.69
     27.39
     3.61
     31.00

      Total
     235.00
     31.00
     266.00
     235.00
     31.00
     266.00

      Correct
     212.59
     8.29
     220.88
     207.61
     3.61
     211.23

      % Correct
     90.46
     26.73
     83.04
     88.35
     11.65
     79.41

      % Incorrect
     9.54
     73.27
     16.96
     11.65
     88.35
     20.59

      Total Gain*
     2.12
     15.07
     3.63




      Percent Gain**
     18.18
     17.06
     17.62




















      *Change in "% Correct" from default (constant probability) 
specification







      **Percent of incorrect (default) prediction corrected by equation



























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