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Re: st: Predicted probabilities after oprobit w/robust standard errors
From |
Nick Winter <[email protected]> |
To |
[email protected] |
Subject |
Re: st: Predicted probabilities after oprobit w/robust standard errors |
Date |
Fri, 02 Jun 2006 08:52:01 -0400 |
I think Gary King's -clarify- can do this sort of thing.
At 09:26 AM 6/2/2006, Richard Williams wrote:
At 06:55 PM 6/1/2006, Matt Barmack wrote:
Specifying cluster or robust does not seem to change the predicted
probabilities from oprobit. Does it? Shouldn't it?
Intuitively/naively, I am thinking that for an observation for which
the variance of the random part of the latent index is high, there is
a greater chance of ending up further away from what the
deterministic part of the latent index alone might suggest.
One other clarification: by "variance of the random part of the
latent index" I assume you mean the residual. In Probit the
residual is assumed to have a Normal(0, 1) distribution. The linear
prediction is an estimate and is subject to sampling variability. I
suppose if one were so inclined, you could compute the confidence
interval for that estimate, and then based on that estimate come up
with a range for the predicted probabilities. I don't recall ever
having seen that done. Nor am I exactly sure how you would do it,
since the estimates of the cutpoints are themselves subject to
sampling variability.
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Richard Williams, Notre Dame Dept of Sociology
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________________________________________________________
Nicholas J. G. Winter 607.255.8819 t
Assistant Professor 607.255.4530 f
Department of Government [email protected] e
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