Using French survey data on working conditions, we document the existing relationships between workers' well-being, work organization, and human resources' practices that may lead to greater intensity but also greater job decision latitude. The relationships between intensity, autonomy, and workers' well-being are first studied on the basis of a descriptive analysis before estimating the relationship with panel data. In a framework as close as possible to Karasek's conceptual job demand or job control model, our results highlight a detrimental impact of intensity and a positive impact of autonomy.

Variation in trust positively explains variation in patience. Across countries, this presentation finds that a 1-standard deviation increase in the variation of trust leads to an increase of at least 10 percent of variation in patience. The implication of this result is that generating and maintaining a trustful environment is fundamental to encouraging patience and other economy-enhancing behavior. The results of this study confirm that generating and maintaining an environment of trust is essential to encouraging patience for the advancement of economic prosperity.

This presentation examines how sales at medical marijuana centers in Colorado were affected by the opening of recreational marijuana stores in 2014, where any adult can purchase without the necessity of a doctor's recommendation. I exploit differences across counties in the availability of medical and recreational marijuana to examine whether the sales growth of recreational marijuana was at the expense of sales of medical marijuana or acted by expanding the overall legal market. My findings suggest a statistically significant but economically modest amount of displacement (less than 10 percent), demonstrating that the legalization of recreational marijuana primarily expanded the legal market.

The EU boasts the largest single labor market globally; EU citizens enjoy the freedom to take up work anywhere within the common market. Despite considerably diverse labor market regimes across the EU, little is known about how local labor market settings influence spatial labor mobility within the bloc. By integrating cross-country harmonized labor mobility data from the EU Labor Force Survey with the Kaitz index, a standardized measure of local minimum wage (MW) impact, I investigate the relevance of MWs for low-skilled labor mobility in Europe. Utilizing both a fixed-effects model and the Arellano–Bond dynamic panel instrumental-variable estimator on a sample of 103 NUTS-2 regions across six EU countries from 2003 to 2019, my analysis reveals that more substantial MWs correspond to elevated local labor inflows: On average, a one percent increase in the Kaitz index associates with a 0.03 percentage-point increase in worker inflow rate to the given region, indicating a Kaitz index elasticity of low-skilled labor inflow of about 0.18. This result holds for several alternative model specifications and robustness tests. Moreover, I observe substantial cross-country heterogeneity and find particularly pronounced mobility responses for urban areas and among younger people.

This presentation explores how firms' demands for new skills (occupations) affect workers' labor market outcomes and within- and across-firms wage dispersion. I outline a stylized matching model (Jovanovic 1979) to study firms' differential responses to information frictions when hiring for new versus preexisting occupations. Firms respond to higher information frictions when creating new roles by screening more, which results in better match quality for new positions. Using matched employer–employee panel data from Sweden, I show that workers entering newly created roles within firms start with higher wages and stay longer, leading to substantial differences in earnings within jobs. Sorting analysis indicates no selection into positions based on observed or unobserved worker characteristics. The study contributes to understanding employers' hiring behavior, the importance of jobs in workers' careers, and the effect of hiring frictions on wage structure.

Previous research has predominantly focused on the lower male–female ratio as an explanatory factor for the lower marriage rates among black individuals relative to white individuals in the United States. In our presentation, we investigate the role of economic factors as drivers of marriage formation and their potential to explain this racial gap. Specifically, we estimate the impact of minimum wage hikes on the marital racial gap between black and white individuals. Our findings suggest that following minimum wage increases, the marriage rate of young black individuals increases relative to that of white individuals. Additionally, our results indicate that in response to the minimum wage hikes, young black individuals increase their labor supply relative to whites. This relative improvement in the economic prospects of black individuals is consistent with the reduction in the marital gap estimated for this population.

When we want to study the effects of covariates on the different quantiles of the outcome, we use quantile regression. However, the traditional quantile regression is inconsistent when a covariate is endogenous. I introduce the Stata command ivqregress, which models the quantiles of the outcome and simultaneously controls for problems that arise from endogeneity. I show how to use the suite of instrumental-variables quantile regression commands to estimate, visualize, and infer features of the outcome distribution.

Is current monetary policy making the distribution of credit more unequal? Using French household-level data, we document credit volumes along the income distribution. Our analysis centers on assessing the impact of surprises in monetary policy on credit volumes at different income levels. Expansionary monetary policy surprises lead to a surge in mortgage credit exclusively for households within the top 20% income bracket. Monetary policy then does not impact mortgage credit volume for 80% of households, whereas its effect on consumer credit exists and remains consistent across the income distribution. This result is notably associated with the engagement of this particular income group in rental investments. Controlling for bank decision factors and city dynamics, we attribute these results to individual demand factors. Mechanisms related to intertemporal substitution and affordability drive the impact of monetary policy surprises. They manifest through the policy's influence on collaterals and a larger down payment.

Saving groups (SGs) are an important driver for saving mobilization and credit and thus effective vehicles of social and economic change for vulnerable groups. Hence, understanding that factors help them perform successfully is crucial, especially regarding their peculiarities as informal organizations. This study focuses on one essential factor, group composition diversity. By identifying which groups are homogeneous (melting pot) or heterogeneous (salad bowl), the presentation examines how compositional diversity in groups affects the performance of SGs. The study uses lens of faultline theory and data from 688 savings groups belonging to the largest disability inclusive savings group program (iSAVE) in Uganda. Econometric results show that demographic and functional faultlines and their combination have a statistically significant positive effect on profit generating capacity of SGs (return on savings). This may imply that strong subgroup attachments or alignments along multiple demographic and functional attributes are a melting pot in informal institutions and thus a potential source of efficiency. Therefore, in promoting group composition in informal institutions, homogeneity should prevail over heterogeneity.

This presentation considers spatial linkages of bilateral trade, financial correlation, and bilateral distance to study the macroeconomic determinants of sovereign risk for frontier markets. It applies (Shi and Lee 2017) a dynamic spatial Durbin model with interactive fixed effects. Analysis confirms the existence of spillover effects stemming from the explanatory variables' movement toward the credit default swaps (CDSs) premium of itself and neighboring countries. Bilateral distance and trade are the most significant spatial linkages. All macroeconomics except reserves impact CDS spreads directly and through feedback effects. Spatial dependence strengthens during recessions. Findings suggest policymakers should account for regional contagion channels that transmit sovereign risk.

The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This presentation uses the Bundesbank's online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment with different information treatments and compared long-run expectations for Euro-area overall inflation, interest rates, and OOH inflation. Long-run expectations are typically higher for OOH inflation than overall inflation, and both are unanchored from the ECB's target at the time of the survey. We find significantly higher inflation expectations under the treatment where OOH costs are assumed to be fully included in the inflation measure. This information effect is heterogeneous as, among others, homeowners and respondents with low trust in the ECB react more strongly. However, inflation expectations remain stable when information about past OOH inflation is also given. Careful communication design could thus prevent expectations from becoming more de-anchored.

This presentation explores the impact of natural disasters on developing countries' GDP growth tail-risk. Using quantile local projections on data for 75 developing economies from 1970–2021, my results reveal that natural disasters lead to a persistent decrease at the 10th percentile of economic growth. In addition, agricultural and industrial growth at the 10th percentile experience significant declines. However, the services sector shows a less persistent response and, in some cases, a reversal that may be due to increased demand postdisaster. When splitting countries by income level, I observe that high-income developing countries better counteract the adverse effects of natural disasters. In contrast, low-income countries appear to lack the capacity to mitigate associated risks effectively. Finally, when studying the impact of institutional arrangements and government effectiveness in mitigating natural disaster risk, I find that autocratic countries have a slightly higher vulnerability to natural disasters than democratic countries. At the same time, better public institutions are associated with lower growth tail-risk.

Can fertility policies have unintended effects on who gets married? We investigate the effect of the relaxation of the one-child policy, one of the strictest large-scale fertility policies of all time, on marriage. Before everyone was allowed to have two children with the two-child policy, some were already exempted from the strict one-child limit. Theory suggests that if a larger family size is preferred, the relaxation of the one-child policy could increase marriage rates among those previously not exempted. Yet those exempted could also have had a “child advantage in the marriage market” as they brought the potentially valuable characteristics of having two children.

In a context with a strong sex ratio imbalance with more men than women, the advantage can increase men's chances of getting married. In this case, we expect the marriage rate to change only for men as those previously advantaged “lose out” from the policy change. We use detailed policy data on the main exemptions from the one-child policy and match them with individual data from the China Family Panel Study collected between 2010 and 2018. We find that with the end of the one-child policy, those previously exempted are less likely to get married. The effect is mainly driven by men — the likelihood of women getting married is only weakly affected. The results suggest that there was indeed a significant child advantage in the marriage market which, coupled with the skewed sex ratio, distorted who got married.

This research analyzes the effect of foreign trade on economic performance of the late Qing China. A new dataset of the adjusted Chinese trade series from 1867 to 1913 has been created using the data from the Chinese Maritime Customs. GDP estimations from 1860 to 1912 are from Ma and de Jong's recent study. Foreign trade of China expanded moderately during the first wave of globalization, while the exports-to-GDP ratio shows that exports only made up a small proportion of total production. Nonetheless, the results, obtained from both static and dynamic analysis, are generally supportive of the export-led growth. Interestingly, the unskilled exports and skilled imports played significant roles in promoting growth in late Qing China, particularly in its modernization process.

We investigate how ethnic solidarities and rivalries contribute to five types of local community activities in Indonesia and overcome freeriding. As an elliciting strategy, we estimate the impact of moderate intergroup violence, which preserves the existence of activities, on these activities to reveal these ethnic relationships. Individual participation in permanent local activities is matched with violent events at district level. Causal identification is based on extensive controls and heteorogeneity effects, robustness checks, and geographical spillovers and ethnic networks for instrumentation.

Heterogeneous causal effects of violence are found that locally vary with activity type, ethnic polarization, own-group involvement in the same activity, and unobserved heterogeneity. While violence generally weakens all activities that are not immune to conflicts, in contexts of high ethnic polarization, it can stimulate participation (for example, in cooperatives). In contrast, in nonviolent contexts polarization depresses participation. Moreover, local involvement of own-group members in an activity induces further participation of individuals of this ethnic group in the same activity. This solidarity effect is amplified by both violence and ethnic polarization. A few theoretical mechanisms are suggested to interpret these results. The estimates suggest that noxious phenomena may occur within community groups: ethnic conflicts, corruption, exclusion, and capture by an ethnic group or by elites. Therefore, local community activities should not be considered as a development panacea.

We provide evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly longer sentences than non-Hispanic citizens in the federal criminal justice system in the United States when a higher number of illegal aliens are apprehended along the southwest border. Apprehensions can increase the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity, which is associated with persistent negative stereotypes, and can also deteriorate attitudes toward Hispanics. We rule out concerns that apprehensions might be conveying legally relevant information to judges. Thus, we provide direct evidence for time-varying discrimination toward Hispanic defendants. Our estimated effect is only at play for defendants without a heavy previous criminal record.

What is the impact of reducing financial incentives of the AWP, a program that allows individuals on disability insurance (DI) to combine salary and benefits? Does this encourage employment consumption, or conversely, does it push individuals back into full benefit dependency? Using a rich set of administrative data, our study leverages a kink in the AWP's design and applies RKD to infer the causal impact of a 30% increase in marginal taxation rates on labor supply. My findings reveal that, after crossing the kink, the probability of DI recipients to exit the AWP increases in 5.9%. Further analysis of exit paths indicates a 3% increase in the probability of returning to full DI and a 1.3% impact on the probability of full work resumption. I also show that men are more sensitive to taxation than women and that women are more inclined to return to full DI. Individuals with mental health conditions tend to opt for full DI after the tax increase, while those with musculoskeletal conditions are more likely to return to full-time employment. Blue-collar workers and individuals on long-term DI exhibit a greater responsiveness to taxation changes. These findings hold significant relevance for the design of return-to-work policies for DI recipients, shaping a path toward more effective and inclusive strategies.

Post-lasso and post-double-lasso are becoming the most popular methods for estimating average treatment effects from linear regression models with many covariates. However, these methods can suffer from substantial omitted variable bias in finite-samples. We propose a new method called post-double-autometrics, which is based on autometrics, and show that this new method outperforms post-double-lasso in some realistic situations.

We analyze the impact of the end of the hiring incentives introduced in Italy through the budget law for 2015 on job and employment security. Despite the large use of incentives across OECD countries, the literature on this is surprisingly scant. The subsidies aimed to foster hirings under open-ended contracts through very generous social security rebates. The application of a nonlinear difference-in-differences specification to high-frequency population-wide employer–employee administrative data source from a large Italian region within a duration setting, suggests that separations spike at the subsidy's expiration, implying that direct employment effects were at best temporary. Nonetheless, incentives may have benefitted workers beyond their capacity to stay in the subsidized job (what is labeled job security), that is, through human capital and experience effects, incentives may have raised the workers' probability to remain employed across different jobs.

Indeed, by applying our model to employment rather than job spells, we find that the probability to move to nonemployment when the subsidies expire does not significantly change, suggesting that benefitted workers do not enjoy better longer-term employment perspectives thanks to the incentive program. Heterogeneity analysis shows individuals with tertiary education suffer less from the reduced job security, while no distributive effect emerges in terms of employment security.

I develop a novel and tractable test of the degree of fiscal dominance characterizing the relationship between a country's fiscal and monetary authorities. The government's long-run fiscal rule stipulates that a given fraction of the outstanding public debt is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses, and the remainder is backed by seigniorage revenue. The larger the proportion of debt backed by seigniorage revenue, the stronger the degree of fiscal dominance. I use my test to construct an index of fiscal dominance for 24 OECD countries. My estimates of fiscal dominance correlate with some institutional measures of central bank independence, such that a high degree of fiscal dominance corresponds to weaker central bank independence.

Background: Unfavorable macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions have placed South Africa's economy in a difficult fiscal situation, with rapidly growing public debt and large government deficits. This compromises service delivery in all spheres of government.

Aim: The study focused on assessing the level of tax compliance in South Africa and what factors explain the level of compliance.

Setting: World Values Survey data on South Africa were used to assess the tax side of fiscal policy, how taxpayers' response to the policy affects compliance, and what matters for compliance.

Methods: Descriptive statistics and an ordered logistic model were employed on longitudinal data. The study used data from two waves; the first wave was between the years 2005 and 2009, and the second wave was between the years 2006 and 2016.

Results: The study revealed that the perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors of South African taxpayers have generally shifted from a society that values tax compliance to a nation that justifies tax evasion. The main factors that shape perception and behavior towards tax compliance were found to be demographic factors, the level of confidence in the government, and patriotism.

Conclusion: The study recommends that cognitive and behavioral factors that shape taxpayers' choice to either comply with or evade tax need to be considered when designing and communicating the policy. In doing so, the framework will be well fit into South Africa's unique socioeconomic landscape, helping finance public service delivery. In summary, public service delivery needs to incorporate behavioral insights.

Contribution: The significance of understanding human behavior in public management planning, which is given less attention, has been found to be central.

We contribute to the recent debate on the instability of the slope of the Phillips curve by offering insights from a flexible time-varying instrumental-variables approach robust to weak instruments. Our robust approach focuses directly on the Phillips curve and allows general forms of instability, in contrast to current approaches based either on structural models with time-varying parameters or on instrumental-variables estimates in ad hoc subsamples. We find evidence of a weakening of the slope of the Phillips curve starting around 1980. We also offer novel insights on the Phillips curve during the recent pandemic: the flattening has reverted and the Phillips curve is back.

Binscatter is a popular method for visualizing bivariate relationships and conducting informal specification testing. We study the properties of this method formally and develop enhanced visualization and econometric binscatter tools. These include estimating conditional means with optimal binning and quantifying uncertainty. We also highlight a methodological problem related to covariate adjustment that can yield incorrect conclusions. We revisit two applications using our methodology and find substantially different results relative to those obtained using prior informal binscatter methods. General purpose software in Python, R, and Stata is provided. Our technical work is of independent interest for the nonparametric partition-based estimation literature.

This presentation (draft) aims to improve our understanding of the role of trust in the context of sustainability initiatives, from multiple supply chain (consumer and producer) perspectives, employing a set of logistic regression models. First, it analyzes consumer preferences regarding sustainability initiatives that food supply chain stakeholders (farmers, retailers, food processors, food service providers) could potentially implement from a consumer perspective to increase consumer trust. This consumer perspective is then contrasted with a producer perspective, where we aim to understand the drivers of producers' trust into externally provided sustainability initiatives (certification for sustainable production practices, GlobalGAP). The consumer study is based on a survey from among 2,193 consumers in 6 countries (Finland, Israel, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom), to be contrasted with a survey from among 658 Kenyan producers (farmers), thereby assessing universal antecedents of trust.

If the characteristics and location of farms and consumers involved in short food supply chain (SFSC) are well studied, especially for on-farm sales, the location of off-farm points of sale—as interaction points between supply and demand—has not been much analyzed, especially from a quantitative perspective. Though, a better understanding of the factors favoring and impeding the emergence of such points of sale could be valuable for producers (farmers), sellers (farmers or intermediaries), consumers (through consumers driven initiatives), and also for policymakers.

To fill this gap, we have compiled an original database from local, regional, and national websites for the year 2020 and geolocalized more than 500 points of sale (pick-up point for sale by internet, pick-up point for community supported agriculture, producers' collective stores, markets, and retail stores) in two French departments (Nord and Pas-de-Calais). We account for the local environment of each point of sales, both in terms of potential supply of agricultural products and potential food demand, by relying on distance-weighted variables (inspired by the concept of market potential). We then fit a count model at the municipal level to distinguish the demand and supply factors explaining the creation of points of sale. Even though this first model is already fit at the smallest administrative geographical scale, leading to potential policy recommendations, we also wanted to go as far as possible in the understanding of the location of off-farm points of sales, and we thus fit a model explaining the existence of a point of sales at the INSEE-grid scale (200 square meters). After discussing our finding, the paper closes on policy recommendations and future research opportunities.

The current presentation aims to assess the credibility of demand-side policies to curb deforestation. We tackle this question focusing on the Brazilian soy sector because conversion from forests to soyproducing areas is a major driver of deforestation. We estimate a firm-level gravity model relating soy exports to destination-specific soy demand. First, we estimate a positive elasticity of soy exports to foreign demand, which confirms the credibility of demand-side policies. Second, we document that the average response hides significant heterogeneities across exporters and across municipalities. Combining export elasticities with soy expansion possibilities, demand-side policies could hence avoid aggregate deforestation, particularly in regions proximate to the Amazon.

This study aims to identify the causal effects of English proficiency on residential location choices of immigrants. Based on the ideas that immigrants whose mother tongue is linguistically close to English learn the language more easily and that young children learn a new language more easily than older children, we construct an instrument for English proficiency, exploiting linguistic distance from English and age at arrival in the United Kingdom for childhood migrants. Using a unique dataset, we construct various measures of residential clustering aimed at capturing different types of immigrant enclave and find a negative impact of better English skills on residency in a language enclave but a positive impact on residency in an ethnic enclave. We also find strong evidence of an impact of poorer English proficiency on living in a neighbourhood of lower quality.

A large literature has documented the incentive effect of emigration prospects in terms of human capital accumulation in origin countries. Much less attention has been paid to the impact on specific educational choices. We provide some evidence from the behavior of students of the University of Lorraine located in the northeast of France and close to Luxembourg, a booming economy with attractive work conditions. We find that students who paid attention to the foreign labor market at the time of enrollment tend to choose topics that lead to occupations that are highly valued in Luxembourg. These results hold when accounting for heterogeneous substitution patterns across study fields through the estimation of advanced discrete choice models. Incentive effects of emigration prospects are also found when accounting for the potential endogeneity of the interest for the foreign labor market using a control function approach based on the initial locations of these students at the time of enrollment. Consistently, students showing no attention to the foreign labor market are not subject to the incentive effect of emigration prospects.

This study examines the economic impact of international students' influx on U.K.'s cultural goods trade after the abolition of the poststudy work (PSW) visa, which effectively allows graduates from non-EU countries to stay in the U.K. for at least two years after completing a U.K. degree. Using administrative enrollment data covering the universe of UK higher education sector spanning from 2008 to 2016, this study provides evidence demonstrating that the PSW visa abolition corresponded with a 34.62% average reduction in the value of the U.K.'s cultural goods export trade to non-EU countries (relative to that of EU countries). On the contrary, the PSW visa abolition has no impact on cultural goods import trade. Furthermore, the PSW visa abolition only impacts on cultural goods export to countries with low GDP, population, and high stock of immigrants. Given the substantial negative impact of a decreased influx of international students, government should be well warranted when formulating relevant policy.

This descriptive presentation evaluates a specific hypothesis of the U-shaped female labor force function developed by Claudia Goldin (1994). The hypothesis suggests that in middle-income countries like Mexico, female labor force participation rates (FLPRs) tend to be low due to the high percentage of industrial jobs in the country and a social stigma toward married women working in blue-collar jobs. The regression analysis uses microdata from Mexico's ENOE household survey, and it is based on a repeated cross-sectional dataset from the first quarters of 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019. The empirical strategy relies on probit regressions to estimate women's likelihood of being economically active depending on the percentage of jobs in agriculture, industry, and services in the municipality where they live.

Contrary to the hypothesis, the results show that a higher percentage of industrial jobs at the municipal level is associated with higher female labor participation. Moreover, a higher percentage of jobs in the service sector exhibits a stronger positive relationship. Conversely, women's probability of being economically active decreases as the percentage of agricultural jobs in the municipality increases. The results were obtained after considering both paid and unpaid work in farms and businesses, and they hold after controlling for individual, household, and municipal characteristics.

Disaggregated data suggest that the lack of labor demand in rural areas of Mexico could be one of the reasons behind the low participation of women in agricultural activities. Hence, this presentation shows that there is an upward trend between FLPRs and different stages of economic development, because agricultural regions have the lowest FLPRs and service-oriented regions have the highest. This represents new evidence for the literature that have usually find a U-shaped relationship in both cross-country and within-country studies.

This presentation analyzes how labor market concentration affects gender inequalities in wages, hirings, and working conditions. While theoretical models predict that firms will be able to extract a monopsony rent from workers who have lower geographical mobility, very specific skills, or specific working conditions' requirements, there is limited empirical evidence on this topic. Using French matched employer–employee data together with data on working conditions and a new definition of commuting zones that incorporates gender differences in mobility, we find that concentration in a given commuting zone and occupation increases the gender wage gap and decreases the share of women among new hires but has limited effect on the gender gap in working conditions. Women with children and women of childbearing age are particularly affected by the increase in firms' monopsonistic power.

How do middle-skilled workers trade off wages against commuting time, as compared with high- and low-skilled ones? In this presentation, we leverage a quasi-exhaustive panel of jobs in France to explore how unobserved heterogeneity can help characterize workers' trade-off at the metropolitan area level. We use estimated worker- and employer-fixed effects in order to construct two measures of how constrained workers are, depending on their broad occupational group. A first measure, the commute-wage gradient (CWG), captures the trade-off that a marginal entrant into a metropolitan area would face, while a second, labeled monopsony power measure (MPM) gauges the extent to which employers' monopsony power influences workers' outside options at alternative employers. We find that middle-skilled workers are “stuck”, in the sense that higher-wage middle-skilled earners have to commute more, than otherwise identical high- or low-skilled workers, while being at the same time more subject to monospony power. By contrast, high-skilled workers are less constrained according to both measures. Last, we document nonmonotonicites in the case of low-skilled workers, which is hardly consistent with a job ladder model.

In this presentation, we provide information on PhD graduates using the Spanish university graduate placement survey from 2019. We identify who is more likely to pursue a PhD, and we learn about who decides to study it abroad. We also analyze the probability of PhD holders to follow an academic career, as well as the returns to study the PhD abroad. Our results suggest that those who like their studies and study for the PhD abroad are likelier to have an academic job. Living abroad also increases the likelihood of having an academic job, indicating that it may be easier to find an academic job abroad. Similarly, studying a PhD abroad yields positive returns only if one finds an academic job abroad. These results are important for understanding the job opportunities of PhD holders in Spain and their job characteristics.

Technological progress and innovation have varying impacts on employment. Recent studies suggest that there is no clear-cut answer, likely due to oscillations in the relationship between innovation and employment. We explored this relationship using a dynamic regression model, incorporating variables of employment through total labor force and innovation through the Innovation Program 5 in OECD countries and by IP5 and the Patent Cooperation Treaty in non-OECD countries. We confirmed the presence of significant positive effects of the IP5 variable on employment in OECD countries and significant positive effects of the PCT variable in non-OECD countries via the estimation of the two-step SYS-GMM method in Stata. Our conclusion was that deploying this methodology enabled us to underscore the oscillations of effects contingent upon the selected innovation proxy across time and the classifications applied.

Employment policy is an important factor affecting the employment level of college graduates. Based on the policy documents of the Ministry of Education and the text data of the annual report on the employment quality of college graduates from 2015 to 2019 this presentation uses the text data analysis method to calculate the policy perception of colleges and universities, and uses the panel regression model to evaluate the policy effect. The study found that the policy perception of colleges and universities often increases gradually with time and the midland is higher than the eastern and western parts of China. In addition, no matter whether control education investment, policy perception can significantly promote the employment of college graduates. Heterogeneity analysis shows that policy perception has a significant impact on the employment level of graduates from double-world-class universities, eastern colleges and universities and colleges and universities with low employment.

Further analysis found that the increase in policy perception of colleges and universities affects the employment level of graduates by promoting direct employment, which is more obvious for double-world-class universities and universities in the eastern region. In addition, the core conclusions remain robust after replacing employment level index, changing policy perception measurement methods, and eliminating the impact of outliers. The conclusion of the study shows that the increase in policy perception can promote the employment level of college graduates. Under the new development paradigm, colleges and universities should closely integrate with national policies, strive to optimize graduate employment and entrepreneurship guidance services, and promote more full employment of graduates.