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st: How to calculate confidence interval of the long-run elasticity
From
San K <[email protected]>
To
[email protected]
Subject
st: How to calculate confidence interval of the long-run elasticity
Date
Fri, 3 Aug 2012 16:25:02 +1000
Hello,
I would like to check if I’m doing right to calculate to confidence
interval of the long-run elasticity estimates.
Here are the results from xtabond2.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Corrected
ConsDayAvgLN | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95%
Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Lag4ConsDayAvgLN | .2124323 .0607073 3.50 0.000 .0934483
.3314164
waitedAvgPrice | .0000588 .0000306 1.92 0.055 -1.23e-06
.0001189
waitedAvgPriceL1 | .0007982 .0001699 4.70 0.000 .0004653
.0011311
waitedAvgPriceL2 | -.0005356 .0003933 -1.36 0.173 -.0013064
.0002352
waitedAvgPriceL3 | -.0003919 .00042 -0.93 0.351 -.001215
.0004313
waitedAvgPriceL4 | -.0013985 .0002538 -5.51 0.000 -.001896
-.000901
summer | -.1151637 .0858191 -1.34 0.180 -.283366
.0530386
autumn | -.1719444 .0863831 -1.99 0.047 -.3412522
-.0026366
winter | -.181052 .0877778 -2.06 0.039 -.3530934
-.0090106
spring | -.1314596 .0861975 -1.53 0.127 -.3004036
.0374844
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is what David ([email protected]) suggests doing to calculate
the standard error.
http://www.stata.com/statalist/archive/2002-07/msg00028.html
Based on the above I did the following:
* calculate the long-run estimate
mat price_LR = (_b[waitedAvgPrice]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL1]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL2]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL3]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL4])/(1-_b
[Lag4ConsDayAvgLN])
* calculate Chi2
testnl 0 = (_b[waitedAvgPrice]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL1]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL2]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL3]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL4])/(1-_b[Lag
4ConsDayAvgLN])
(1) 0 = (_b[waitedAvgPrice]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL1]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL2]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL3]+_b[waitedAvgPriceL4])/(1-_b[Lag4ConsDayAvgLN])
chi2(1) = 31.19
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
* calculate the standard error
. mat stdError=price_LR/sqrt(r(chi2))
* Long-Run estimate at the price of $213
. mat price_LR_213=price_LR*213
Then finally using the Excel I calculated the 95% confidence level by
multiplying the stdError by 1.96 and add (or subtract) to the
price_LR_213.
Is this the correct way of doing it? Why I’m concern is that I’m
getting very tight confidence interval!
Any help is appreciated.
*
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