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st: VEC: Missing Output Data
From
Barbara Engels <[email protected]>
To
[email protected]
Subject
st: VEC: Missing Output Data
Date
Thu, 7 Jul 2011 12:04:49 +0200
Dear Statalist,
using Stata 10 I tried to estimate a VEC.
First, I estimated a VAR, then used VARSOC to estimate the optimal lag. Then I tried to determine the rank of cointegration with vecrank, lags(optimal lag according to varsoc) which yielded an optimal rank of 4. Then I tried to estimate the vec with the option rank(4). I do not really understand the output - it lacks values in the cointegrating equations and automatically drops a variable. I would appreciate it very much if somebody could have a look. How would my ECM look like?
This is the output from the VAR to the VEC:
. var tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare
Vector autoregression
Sample: 1984 - 2009 No. of obs = 26
Log likelihood = 225.8472 AIC = -11.37286
FPE = 8.37e-13 HQIC = -10.28601
Det(Sigma_ml) = 1.15e-15 SBIC = -7.598575
Equation Parms RMSE R-sq chi2 P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
tfp_in 13 .025724 0.9532 529.0289 0.0000
lnbrd 13 .011816 0.9997 101844.4 0.0000
lnfrd 13 .099427 0.8283 125.4121 0.0000
lllneduexp 13 .011501 0.9878 2097.597 0.0000
llnftl 13 .753122 0.7185 66.35811 0.0000
impshare 13 3.57439 0.8761 183.8664 0.0000
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
tfp_in |
tfp_in |
L1. | .65481 .2163306 3.03 0.002 .2308098 1.07881
L2. | -.2362683 .1910051 -1.24 0.216 -.6106314 .1380948
lnbrd |
L1. | .0440824 .2533383 0.17 0.862 -.4524516 .5406163
L2. | .0657006 .2519613 0.26 0.794 -.4281344 .5595357
lnfrd |
L1. | .0336617 .0512979 0.66 0.512 -.0668804 .1342037
L2. | -.0451263 .0580456 -0.78 0.437 -.1588936 .0686409
lllneduexp |
L1. | -.6819817 .3510674 -1.94 0.052 -1.370061 .0060979
L2. | -.0334756 .4254052 -0.08 0.937 -.8672544 .8003033
llnftl |
L1. | -.0028725 .0064259 -0.45 0.655 -.0154671 .0097221
L2. | .0069503 .0065758 1.06 0.291 -.005938 .0198386
impshare |
L1. | -.0005763 .001654 -0.35 0.728 -.0038181 .0026655
L2. | -.0040963 .001606 -2.55 0.011 -.0072441 -.0009485
_cons | 5.334034 2.52423 2.11 0.035 .3866338 10.28143
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnbrd |
tfp_in |
L1. | .0924973 .099366 0.93 0.352 -.1022566 .2872511
L2. | .1548926 .0877334 1.77 0.077 -.0170618 .326847
lnbrd |
L1. | 1.381761 .1163646 11.87 0.000 1.153691 1.609832
L2. | -.4635239 .1157321 -4.01 0.000 -.6903547 -.2366931
lnfrd |
L1. | .0493005 .0235624 2.09 0.036 .0031191 .095482
L2. | -.0384771 .0266618 -1.44 0.149 -.0907332 .013779
lllneduexp |
L1. | .3975376 .1612541 2.47 0.014 .0814854 .7135897
L2. | .2921301 .1953992 1.50 0.135 -.0908454 .6751056
llnftl |
L1. | -.0038576 .0029516 -1.31 0.191 -.0096426 .0019274
L2. | -.0000343 .0030204 -0.01 0.991 -.0059542 .0058856
impshare |
L1. | .0028117 .0007597 3.70 0.000 .0013227 .0043008
L2. | .0013202 .0007377 1.79 0.074 -.0001256 .0027661
_cons | -5.365771 1.159442 -4.63 0.000 -7.638236 -3.093306
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnfrd |
tfp_in |
L1. | .331179 .83615 0.40 0.692 -1.307645 1.970003
L2. | .3559132 .7382633 0.48 0.630 -1.091056 1.802883
lnbrd |
L1. | -.6751184 .9791905 -0.69 0.491 -2.594297 1.24406
L2. | .5778664 .973868 0.59 0.553 -1.33088 2.486613
lnfrd |
L1. | .084372 .1982741 0.43 0.670 -.3042381 .4729821
L2. | .1093997 .2243549 0.49 0.626 -.3303278 .5491271
lllneduexp |
L1. | .5817196 1.356928 0.43 0.668 -2.077811 3.24125
L2. | .6632462 1.644255 0.40 0.687 -2.559434 3.885926
llnftl |
L1. | -.0247996 .0248372 -1.00 0.318 -.0734796 .0238804
L2. | -.0124169 .0254164 -0.49 0.625 -.0622322 .0373983
impshare |
L1. | -.0008185 .006393 -0.13 0.898 -.0133486 .0117116
L2. | -.0039797 .0062076 -0.64 0.521 -.0161464 .0081869
_cons | 2.003561 9.756528 0.21 0.837 -17.11888 21.126
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lllneduexp |
tfp_in |
L1. | -.2840046 .096718 -2.94 0.003 -.4735684 -.0944407
L2. | .4418154 .0853954 5.17 0.000 .2744435 .6091873
lnbrd |
L1. | .1886278 .1132636 1.67 0.096 -.0333648 .4106204
L2. | -.1852099 .112648 -1.64 0.100 -.4059959 .035576
lnfrd |
L1. | -.0517556 .0229345 -2.26 0.024 -.0967064 -.0068048
L2. | .0145555 .0259513 0.56 0.575 -.0363081 .065419
lllneduexp |
L1. | 1.402855 .1569568 8.94 0.000 1.095225 1.710484
L2. | -.448848 .190192 -2.36 0.018 -.8216176 -.0760785
llnftl |
L1. | -.0100522 .0028729 -3.50 0.000 -.015683 -.0044214
L2. | .0044507 .0029399 1.51 0.130 -.0013115 .0102128
impshare |
L1. | .0010691 .0007395 1.45 0.148 -.0003803 .0025184
L2. | -.0000456 .000718 -0.06 0.949 -.0014529 .0013618
_cons | .8822863 1.128544 0.78 0.434 -1.329619 3.094192
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
llnftl |
tfp_in |
L1. | -5.539901 6.333509 -0.87 0.382 -17.95335 6.873547
L2. | -12.22055 5.592055 -2.19 0.029 -23.18078 -1.260325
lnbrd |
L1. | -3.867342 7.416984 -0.52 0.602 -18.40436 10.66968
L2. | 9.024804 7.376668 1.22 0.221 -5.4332 23.48281
lnfrd |
L1. | 2.302315 1.501849 1.53 0.125 -.6412535 5.245885
L2. | 5.007128 1.6994 2.95 0.003 1.676365 8.337891
lllneduexp |
L1. | -3.803325 10.2782 -0.37 0.711 -23.94822 16.34157
L2. | -20.59904 12.45458 -1.65 0.098 -45.00958 3.811496
llnftl |
L1. | .0984467 .1881319 0.52 0.601 -.2702851 .4671784
L2. | -.308153 .1925193 -1.60 0.109 -.6854838 .0691779
impshare |
L1. | -.0254903 .0484247 -0.53 0.599 -.120401 .0694204
L2. | .0920423 .04702 1.96 0.050 -.0001153 .1841999
_cons | 56.59956 73.90187 0.77 0.444 -88.24544 201.4446
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
impshare |
tfp_in |
L1. | -39.64 30.05944 -1.32 0.187 -98.55542 19.27542
L2. | -28.55406 26.54043 -1.08 0.282 -80.57234 23.46423
lnbrd |
L1. | -117.5115 35.20172 -3.34 0.001 -186.5056 -48.51741
L2. | 122.4382 35.01037 3.50 0.000 53.81914 191.0573
lnfrd |
L1. | 12.43958 7.127917 1.75 0.081 -1.530877 26.41004
L2. | 11.20726 8.065516 1.39 0.165 -4.600855 27.01538
lllneduexp |
L1. | -192.0773 48.78132 -3.94 0.000 -287.687 -96.46772
L2. | 129.7197 59.11065 2.19 0.028 13.86497 245.5745
llnftl |
L1. | .2514531 .892892 0.28 0.778 -1.498583 2.001489
L2. | -1.482199 .913715 -1.62 0.105 -3.273048 .3086493
impshare |
L1. | .0329463 .2298284 0.14 0.886 -.417509 .4834016
L2. | .3255006 .2231616 1.46 0.145 -.1118881 .7628893
_cons | 196.4616 350.7454 0.56 0.575 -490.9867 883.9099
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. varsoc
Selection-order criteria
Sample: 1984 - 2009 Number of obs = 26
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|lag | LL LR df p FPE AIC HQIC SBIC |
|----+----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 0 | 8.4835 3.3e-08 -.191038 -.107434 .099292 |
| 1 | 162.371 307.78 36 0.000 4.2e-12 -9.25934 -8.67411 -7.22703 |
| 2 | 225.847 126.95* 36 0.000 8.4e-13* -11.3729* -10.286* -7.59858* |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Endogenous: tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare
Exogenous: _cons
. vecrank tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare, lags(2)
Johansen tests for cointegration
Trend: constant Number of obs = 26
Sample: 1984 - 2009 Lags = 2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5%
maximum trace critical
rank parms LL eigenvalue statistic value
0 42 154.06063 . 143.5732 94.15
1 53 180.39351 0.86809 90.9075 68.52
2 62 196.23128 0.70426 59.2319 47.21
3 69 208.44712 0.60925 34.8002 29.68
4 74 218.22579 0.52867 15.2429* 15.41
5 77 223.79015 0.34821 4.1142 3.76
6 78 225.84724 0.14635
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. vec tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare, rank(4)
Vector error-correction model
Sample: 1984 - 2009 No. of obs = 26
AIC = -11.09429
Log likelihood = 218.2258 HQIC = -10.06317
Det(Sigma_ml) = 2.06e-15 SBIC = -7.513555
Equation Parms RMSE R-sq chi2 P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
D_tfp_in 11 .027817 0.5453 16.78786 0.1143
D_lnbrd 11 .01154 0.9852 931.3983 0.0000
D_lnfrd 11 .103193 0.4347 10.76498 0.4632
D_lllneduexp 11 .010754 0.8209 64.18541 0.0000
D_llnftl 11 .718578 0.6251 23.34033 0.0158
D_impshare 11 3.50918 0.6095 21.84974 0.0256
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_tfp_in |
_ce1 |
L1. | -.404082 .3392366 -1.19 0.234 -1.068974 .2608095
_ce2 |
L1. | .0741768 .0860261 0.86 0.389 -.0944312 .2427849
_ce3 |
L1. | -.0036027 .0887462 -0.04 0.968 -.177542 .1703366
_ce4 |
L1. | -.578924 .5838856 -0.99 0.321 -1.723319 .5654707
tfp_in |
LD. | .2646755 .3011667 0.88 0.379 -.3256005 .8549514
lnbrd |
LD. | -.0193311 .3980992 -0.05 0.961 -.7995912 .760929
lnfrd |
LD. | .0527215 .0880581 0.60 0.549 -.1198692 .2253122
lllneduexp |
LD. | -.1928076 .6511809 -0.30 0.767 -1.469099 1.083483
llnftl |
LD. | -.0088065 .009419 -0.93 0.350 -.0272675 .0096544
impshare |
LD. | .0037426 .0024976 1.50 0.134 -.0011526 .0086379
_cons | .0145784 .0217411 0.67 0.503 -.0280335 .0571902
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_lnbrd |
_ce1 |
L1. | .2926754 .1407311 2.08 0.038 .0168475 .5685033
_ce2 |
L1. | -.0912485 .0356876 -2.56 0.011 -.161195 -.0213021
_ce3 |
L1. | .0136096 .036816 0.37 0.712 -.0585486 .0857677
_ce4 |
L1. | .7250033 .2422229 2.99 0.003 .2502552 1.199751
tfp_in |
LD. | -.1482333 .124938 -1.19 0.235 -.3931073 .0966406
lnbrd |
LD. | .4749307 .1651501 2.88 0.004 .1512426 .7986189
lnfrd |
LD. | .0399518 .0365306 1.09 0.274 -.0316468 .1115505
lllneduexp |
LD. | -.3497758 .2701401 -1.29 0.195 -.8792408 .1796891
llnftl |
LD. | -.0004892 .0039074 -0.13 0.900 -.0081476 .0071693
impshare |
LD. | -.001414 .0010361 -1.36 0.172 -.0034448 .0006167
_cons | .0139538 .0090192 1.55 0.122 -.0037235 .0316312
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_lnfrd |
_ce1 |
L1. | 1.525291 1.258464 1.21 0.226 -.9412534 3.991835
_ce2 |
L1. | -.4015444 .3191305 -1.26 0.208 -1.027029 .2239398
_ce3 |
L1. | -.5009449 .3292212 -1.52 0.128 -1.146207 .1443169
_ce4 |
L1. | 2.054606 2.166037 0.95 0.343 -2.190748 6.29996
tfp_in |
LD. | -.4259063 1.117236 -0.38 0.703 -2.615649 1.763837
lnbrd |
LD. | -.5073326 1.476826 -0.34 0.731 -3.401859 2.387194
lnfrd |
LD. | -.2333727 .3266686 -0.71 0.475 -.8736314 .4068861
lllneduexp |
LD. | -1.689169 2.415682 -0.70 0.484 -6.423819 3.04548
llnftl |
LD. | -.0134149 .0349416 -0.38 0.701 -.0818992 .0550694
impshare |
LD. | .001095 .0092654 0.12 0.906 -.0170648 .0192549
_cons | -.0004642 .080653 -0.01 0.995 -.1585411 .1576128
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_lllneduexp |
_ce1 |
L1. | .1712183 .131153 1.31 0.192 -.0858368 .4282735
_ce2 |
L1. | -.0027881 .0332587 -0.08 0.933 -.0679741 .0623978
_ce3 |
L1. | -.0296783 .0343104 -0.86 0.387 -.0969254 .0375687
_ce4 |
L1. | -.0314244 .2257373 -0.14 0.889 -.4738614 .4110125
tfp_in |
LD. | -.4449448 .1164347 -3.82 0.000 -.6731527 -.2167369
lnbrd |
LD. | .1848759 .15391 1.20 0.230 -.1167821 .486534
lnfrd |
LD. | -.0181117 .0340443 -0.53 0.595 -.0848374 .048614
lllneduexp |
LD. | .4328647 .2517545 1.72 0.086 -.060565 .9262944
llnftl |
LD. | -.0050318 .0036415 -1.38 0.167 -.012169 .0021054
impshare |
LD. | -.0000125 .0009656 -0.01 0.990 -.0019051 .00188
_cons | .0155602 .0084054 1.85 0.064 -.000914 .0320345
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_llnftl |
_ce1 |
L1. | -17.10798 8.763211 -1.95 0.051 -34.28356 .0675961
_ce2 |
L1. | 4.579395 2.222239 2.06 0.039 .2238872 8.934903
_ce3 |
L1. | 8.219607 2.292505 3.59 0.000 3.72638 12.71283
_ce4 |
L1. | -23.35966 15.08302 -1.55 0.121 -52.92184 6.202517
tfp_in |
LD. | 11.65381 7.779785 1.50 0.134 -3.594283 26.90191
lnbrd |
LD. | -9.342583 10.28376 -0.91 0.364 -29.49838 10.81321
lnfrd |
LD. | -5.504601 2.27473 -2.42 0.016 -9.96299 -1.046212
lllneduexp |
LD. | 19.90926 16.8214 1.18 0.237 -13.06008 52.87861
llnftl |
LD. | .2452549 .2433131 1.01 0.313 -.23163 .7221399
impshare |
LD. | -.0973313 .0645189 -1.51 0.131 -.2237859 .0291234
_cons | .0000127 .5616204 0.00 1.000 -1.100743 1.100769
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_impshare |
_ce1 |
L1. | -88.94783 42.79524 -2.08 0.038 -172.825 -5.070695
_ce2 |
L1. | 12.2211 10.85233 1.13 0.260 -9.049078 33.49127
_ce3 |
L1. | 16.56085 11.19548 1.48 0.139 -5.381875 38.50358
_ce4 |
L1. | -82.11431 73.65811 -1.11 0.265 -226.4815 62.25293
tfp_in |
LD. | 29.92695 37.99267 0.79 0.431 -44.53732 104.3912
lnbrd |
LD. | -124.4466 50.22086 -2.48 0.013 -222.8777 -26.01557
lnfrd |
LD. | -8.419597 11.10867 -0.76 0.448 -30.19219 13.353
lllneduexp |
LD. | -104.2414 82.14752 -1.27 0.204 -265.2476 56.7648
llnftl |
LD. | 2.091712 1.188223 1.76 0.078 -.2371618 4.420585
impshare |
LD. | -.2562152 .3150787 -0.81 0.416 -.8737582 .3613277
_cons | -7.67e-07 2.74268 -0.00 1.000 -5.375555 5.375553
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cointegrating equations
Equation Parms chi2 P>chi2
-------------------------------------------
_ce1 2 51.7464 0.0000
_ce2 2 33.25322 0.0000
_ce3 2 65.03145 0.0000
_ce4 2 37.05269 0.0000
-------------------------------------------
Identification: beta is exactly identified
Johansen normalization restrictions imposed
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
beta | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce1 |
tfp_in | 1 . . . . .
lnbrd | 6.25e-17 . . . . .
lnfrd | 5.55e-17 . . . . .
lllneduexp | -3.33e-16 . . . . .
llnftl | -.0461967 .0200468 -2.30 0.021 -.0854877 -.0069057
impshare | .0132646 .0020457 6.48 0.000 .0092551 .0172741
_cons | -.3241717 . . . . .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce2 |
tfp_in | -1.44e-15 . . . . .
lnbrd | 1 . . . . .
lnfrd | 9.99e-16 . . . . .
lllneduexp | -1.78e-15 . . . . .
llnftl | 1.2364 .2525998 4.89 0.000 .7413137 1.731487
impshare | .0933262 .0257768 3.62 0.000 .0428047 .1438477
_cons | -24.66017 . . . . .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce3 |
tfp_in | -8.71e-16 . . . . .
lnbrd | 6.25e-17 . . . . .
lnfrd | 1 . . . . .
lllneduexp | 7.22e-16 . . . . .
llnftl | -.4141496 .0588032 -7.04 0.000 -.5294018 -.2988975
impshare | .0182635 .0060006 3.04 0.002 .0065025 .0300245
_cons | -11.8882 . . . . .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce4 |
tfp_in | 1.25e-16 . . . . .
lnbrd | -1.39e-16 . . . . .
lnfrd | -1.67e-16 . . . . .
lllneduexp | 1 . . . . .
llnftl | .1783574 .0330065 5.40 0.000 .1136659 .2430489
impshare | .0115786 .0033682 3.44 0.001 .0049771 .01818
_cons | -10.50126 . . . . .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank you very much!
Barbara
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