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| From | Richard Williams <Richard.A.Williams.5@ND.edu> |
| To | "statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu" <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>, "statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu" <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu> |
| Subject | Re: st: Odds ratio |
| Date | Fri, 09 Apr 2010 15:15:35 -0400 |
At 01:38 PM 4/9/2010, Marcello Pagano wrote:
Bookmakers have no problem interpreting odds. Why people go through all sorts of contortions to avoid odds when they are as natural as probabilities is beyond me. If you take m/n as your probability then m/(n-m) are your odds. One is easier than the other? Very odd.
Odds aren't bad, but odds ratios are much harder. If you tell me the odds are 4, I know that is the same as an 80% chance of success. But, if you tell me the odds ratio is 4, that is much vaguer because there are an infinite number of ways to get such a ratio. It could be that the odds for the two things being compared are 4:1, 8:2, 20:5, .4:.1, etc. etc. etc. Unless I know what the odds are for one of the things being compared is, it is hard for me to have much perspective on what the odds ratio really means in practice.
And while I don't think odds are a hard concept, I personally still tend to convert them into probabilities.
------------------------------------------- Richard Williams, Notre Dame Dept of Sociology OFFICE: (574)631-6668, (574)631-6463 HOME: (574)289-5227 EMAIL: Richard.A.Williams.5@ND.Edu WWW: http://www.nd.edu/~rwilliam * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/