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st: Distribution testing time series -monte carlo simulation


From   <[email protected]>
To   <[email protected]>
Subject   st: Distribution testing time series -monte carlo simulation
Date   Wed, 24 Jan 2007 09:48:31 +0100

Hi there,

I have a time series with 40 obs. Based on the underlying process of the
series I would like to generate 5000 (for example) observations, so then I
can generate a robust (in the sense of being based on many observations)
concrete probability distribution . In order to do that what I though I could
do is:

- First, distribution testing of my original series, and then monte carlo
simulation. 

Question: is there any command that allows me to test which is the best
distribution that fits my data, or do I need to test this distribution by
distribution (e.g. normality tests, chi-square...and so on).

- Is there any other command that allows me to generate observations (based
on the underlysing process of a time seies)? 
(e.g. Can bsample, or bootstrap be of any help?)

Kind regards

Jose Seisdedos
Pension Analyst
OECD
DELSA 
Annex Monaco R29

Mail correspondance:
2 Rue Andr�-Pascal
75775 Paris Cedex 16
FRANCE


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