Joe,
Also, try running it with noconstant and you may wish to run it with
the robust option also.
R.A.Y.
Robert A. Yaffee, Ph.D.
Research Professor
Shirley M. Ehrenkranz
School of Social Work
New York University
home address:
Apt 19-W
2100 Linwood Ave.
Fort Lee, NJ
07024-3171
Phone: 201-242-3824
Fax: 201-242-3825
[email protected]
----- Original Message -----
From: Joe Egger <[email protected]>
Date: Sunday, December 17, 2006 6:37 pm
Subject: st: SARIMA modeling with 9.0
> I am new to STATA's ARIMA/SARIMA commands and am trying to fit a
> SARIMAmodel to a time series of weekly infectious disease
> incidence, which
> displays a strong 52-week periodicity.
>
> I am using the code:
>
> .arima DS52.incidence, ar(1 3) mar(1/2,52) mma(1/1,52)
>
> which I assume is fitting an AR parameter at lags 1 and 3, seasonal AR
> parameter at lags 1 and 2 and a seasonal MA parameter at lag 1,
> with the
> series being differenced 2x (1 non-seasonal, 1 seasonal)
>
> When I run this command, STATA has a hard time converging on an
> estimate. I have let it run for 45 minutes but it does not converge.
> Does this model look correct? if so, is the model sufficiently complex
> that estimation just takes this long?
>
> I have aggregated the data to monthly incidence, which makes the
> commandthe same, except substituting the '52' for '12. when I do
> this, STATA
> converges on estimates quite quickly (i.e., 20 seconds). Therefore, it
> seems to me the '52' is the problem. any thoughts?
>
> Thanks,
> Joe
>
>
>
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>
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