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st: Statistical significance vs the 95% confidence intervals -- how should i interpret these


From   Columbia & Belmont Apt <[email protected]>
To   [email protected]
Subject   st: Statistical significance vs the 95% confidence intervals -- how should i interpret these
Date   Fri, 8 Dec 2006 09:25:39 -0800 (PST)

Dear Statalist Colleagues,
This might be a simple question but I cannot reconcile the following results.

The question is "Are the estimates for year 1 and 3 statistically different?
year    estimate    st.error        95% conf interval 
year1    .484721     .015637     .454068    .5153741   
year2   .4128893    .0145616    .3843443    .4414343    
year3   .4556235    .0138994    .4283765    .4828704    

1. Using the 95% confidence interval that I obtained:

Year 1 and year 3 confidence intervals overlap thus year 1&3 estimates are not statistically different at the 95% level.

2. Using ttesti they are statistically different with 99% confidence: 

. ttesti 2398 .484721  .015637 2399 .4556235 .0138994
Two-sample t test with equal variances
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         |     Obs        Mean    Std. Err.   Std. Dev.   [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
       x |    2398     .484721    .0003193     .015637    .4840948    .4853472
       y |    2399    .4556235    .0002838    .0138994     .455067      .45618
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
combined |    4797    .4701692    .0002996    .0207488    .4695819    .4707565
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
    diff |            .0290975    .0004272                  .02826     .029935
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Degrees of freedom: 4795
                      Ho: mean(x) - mean(y) = diff = 0
     Ha: diff < 0               Ha: diff != 0              Ha: diff > 0
       t =  68.1143                t =  68.1143              t =  68.1143
   P < t =   1.0000          P > |t| =   0.0000          P > t =   0.0000


Which one is the correct? What am I not interpreting right?

Thank you in advance.
Sincerely,
Alla


 
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