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Cross-sectional time-series regression

Stata fits fixed-effects (within), between-effects, and random-effects (mixed) models on balanced and unbalanced data. We use the notation

  y[i,t] = X[i,t]*b + u[i] + v[i,t]

That is, u[i] is the fixed or random effect, and v[i,t] is the pure residual.

xtreg is Stata’s cross-sectional time-series regression command. xtreg, fe estimates the parameters of fixed-effects models:

  . xtreg ln_w grade age* ttl_exp* tenure* black not_smsa south, fe
   
  Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      =     28091
  Group variable (i): idcode                      Number of groups   =      4697
   
  R-sq:  within  = 0.1727                         Obs per group: min =         1
	 between = 0.3505                                        avg =       6.0
	 overall = 0.2625                                        max =        15
	
	                                            F(8,23386)         =    610.12
  corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.1936                          Prob > F         =    0.0000
  
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       ln_wage |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
  -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         grade |  (dropped)
           age |   .0359987   .0033864    10.63   0.000     .0293611    .0426362
          age2 |   -.000723   .0000533   -13.58   0.000    -.0008274   -.0006186
       ttl_exp |   .0334668   .0029653    11.29   0.000     .0276545     .039279
      ttl_exp2 |   .0002163   .0001277     1.69   0.090    -.0000341    .0004666
        tenure |   .0357539   .0018487    19.34   0.000     .0321303    .0393775
       tenure2 |  -.0019701    .000125   -15.76   0.000    -.0022151   -.0017251
         black |  (dropped)
      not_smsa |  -.0890108   .0095316    -9.34   0.000    -.1076933   -.0703282
         south |  -.0606309   .0109319    -5.55   0.000    -.0820582   -.0392036
         _cons |    1.03732   .0485546    21.36   0.000     .9421497     1.13249
  -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       sigma_u |  .35562203
       sigma_e |  .29068923
           rho |  .59946283   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  F test that all u_i=0:     F(4696, 23386) =     5.13         Prob > F = 0.0000

The syntax of all estimation commands is the same: the name of the dependent variable is followed by the names of the independent variables.

Here the dependent variable ln_w (log of wage) was modeled as a function of a number of explanatory variables. grade and black were dropped from the model because they do not vary within person.

Our dataset contains 28,091 “observations”, which are 4,697 people each observed, on average, on 6.0 different years. An observation in our data is a person in a given year. The dataset contains variable idcode, which identifies the persons — the i index in x[i,t]. Before fitting the model, we typed iis idcode to tell Stata this. Told once, Stata remembers.

To fit the corresponding random-effects model, we use the same command but change the fe option to re.

  . xtreg ln_w grade age* ttl_exp* tenure* black not_smsa south, re 
    
  Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs      =     28091
  Group variable (i): idcode                      Number of groups   =      4697
  
  R-sq:  within  = 0.1715                         Obs per group: min =         1
	 between = 0.4784                                        avg =       6.0
	 overall = 0.3708                                        max =        15
	
  Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Wald chi2(10)      =   9244.87
  corr(u_i, X)       = 0 (assumed)                Prob > chi2        =    0.0000
    
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       ln_wage |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
  -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         grade |   .0646499   .0017811    36.30   0.000     .0611589    .0681408
           age |    .036806   .0031195    11.80   0.000     .0306918    .0429201
          age2 |  -.0007133     .00005   -14.27   0.000    -.0008113   -.0006153
       ttl_exp |   .0290207   .0024219    11.98   0.000     .0242737    .0337676
       tl_exp2 |   .0003049   .0001162     2.62   0.009      .000077    .0005327
        tenure |    .039252   .0017555    22.36   0.000     .0358114    .0426927
       tenure2 |  -.0020035   .0001193   -16.80   0.000    -.0022373   -.0017697
         black |  -.0530532   .0099924    -5.31   0.000    -.0726379   -.0334685
      not_smsa |  -.1308263   .0071751   -18.23   0.000    -.1448891   -.1167634
         south |  -.0868927   .0073031   -11.90   0.000    -.1012066   -.0725788
         _cons |   .2387209   .0494688     4.83   0.000     .1417639     .335678
  -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       sigma_u |  .25790313
       sigma_e |  .29069544
           rho |  .44043812   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We can also perform the Hausman specification test, which compares the consistent fixed-effects model with the efficient random-effects model. To do that, we must first store the results from our random-effects model, refit the fixed-effects model to make those results current, and then perform the test.

  . estimates store random_effects

  . quietly xtreg ln_w grade age* ttl_exp* tenure* black not_smsa south, fe
  
  . hausman . random_effects

                  ---- Coefficients ----
               |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
               |       .       random_eff~s    Difference          S.E.
  -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           age |    .0359987      .036806       -.0008073        .0013177
          age2 |    -.000723    -.0007133       -9.68e-06        .0000184
       ttl_exp |    .0334668     .0290207        .0044461         .001711
       tl_exp2 |    .0002163     .0003049       -.0000886         .000053
        tenure |    .0357539      .039252       -.0034981        .0005797
       tenure2 |   -.0019701    -.0020035        .0000334        .0000373
      not_smsa |   -.0890108    -.1308263        .0418155        .0062745
         south |   -.0606309    -.0868927        .0262618        .0081346
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
	                     b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg
	      B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

      Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

             chi2(8) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                     =      149.44
           Prob>chi2 =      0.0000

Stata can also perform the Breusch and Pagan Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for random effects and can calculate various predictions, including the random effect, based on the estimates.

Equally as important as its ability to fit statistical models with cross-sectional time-series data is Stata's ability to provide meaningful summary statistics.

xtsum reports means and standard deviations in a meaningful way:

  . xtsum hours

  Variable         |      Mean   Std. Dev.       Min        Max |    Observations
  -----------------+--------------------------------------------+----------------
  hours    overall |  36.55956   9.869623          1        168 |     N =   28467
           between |             7.846585          1       83.5 |     n =    4710
           within  |             7.520712  -2.154726   130.0596 | T-bar = 6.04395

The negative minimum for hours within is not a mistake; the within shows the variation of hours within person around the global mean 36.55956.

xttab does the same for one-way tabulations:

  . xttab msp

	            Overall             Between            Within
        msp |    Freq.  Percent      Freq.  Percent        Percent
  ----------+-----------------------------------------------------
          0 |   11324     39.71      3113     66.08          55.06
          1 |   17194     60.29      3643     77.33          71.90
  ----------+-----------------------------------------------------
      Total |   28518    100.00      6756    143.41          64.14
	                        (n = 4711)

msp is a variable that takes on the value 1 if the surveyed woman is married and the spouse is present in the household. Overall, some 60% of our person-year observations are msp. Taking women individually, 77% of the women are at some point msp, and 66% are not; thus some women are msp one year and not others. Taking women one at a time, if a woman is ever msp, 72% of her observations are msp observations. If a woman is ever not msp, 55% of her observations are not msp. (If marital status never varied in our data, the within percentages would all be 100.)

xttrans reports the transition matrix:

  . xttrans msp

         1 if| 1 if married, spouse present
     married,|
       spouse|
      present|         0          1 |     Total
  -----------+----------------------+----------
           0 |     80.49      19.51 |    100.00
           1 |      7.96      92.04 |    100.00
  -----------+----------------------+----------
        Total|     37.11      62.89 |    100.00

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